Friday, 23 May 2008

Roland Garros Womans Draw

This year will be the most unpredictable winner of all these past few years and I do honestly think that 7 of the top 8 players have a chance to take this! (nb. however small that chance may be!)
Before I go onto talk about the draw which I actually haven't seen and will contemplate it during this post, I will talk about the top 8 and their chances of winning this Slam.
oh before I go onto my rant I just wanted to post this quote from McEnroe talking about Jelena and Ana on Justine Henin.
"They just feel there is no way to beat her in a big match. It could help them the most." I thoroughly agree with this statement and now that Justine has gone they'll feel much more comfortable.
I have read many articles about this and currently on top of most reporters minds our Sharapova, Serena and the Serbians
Anyway first on the chopping block is Maria Sharapova, this year is definitely a good year for her and I have to say it looks like she'll continue on the No.1 spot until the end of the year. She has had a good streak on clay courts this year and her Roland Garros performance is by no means weak, last year she toughed a SF appearance even though she wasn't in good form. I would definitely put my money on her for a good performance here, what she lacks to reach the title is basically and fundamentally her ability on clay, she has been through quite a lot of long matches recently and before now has never really seen to be a competitor for the title (OK Justine was dominant), if she puts herself in too many long matches she may run out of gas!
Ana Ivanovic has the record behind her with a Final in Roland Garros last year and seemingly a good match against Sharapova in the Australian Open this year, it is definitely nice to jump on the Ivanovic wagon for her to win. Now I'm not saying she does not have a chance but I don't think she will be the winner. Last years Roland garros in my view was very lucky for her, she had a good draw. Further on I don't think she is mentally tough enough for this and I still think she is too young and even if she did win I really don't think she deserves it yet. To me I don't Ana is the type of player to win currently, I always thought the earliest she'll win a title is next year.
Jelena Jankovic has been quiet this year and without her late win in Rome I don't think many would have placed her on the radar. What I'm slightly concerned about is the fact that Jelena before being one of the top players never seemed to shine here. Last year she was on top form and was one of the best players out there however this year I see less of that, she seems to have run herself out! I do think that she may have to much pressure on her for the title, she is emotionally one of the most unstable in the top 8 and her 2008 performance hasn't been as threatening as last year, though I would not leave her out I think she doesn't have what it takes yet.
Svetlana Kuznetsova, personally unless she gets a good draw I don't think she's in contention, the past years she has sort of been labelled as a stalwart, she's there but you don't really see her in the end. I think a title may be too much to ask of her and I don't think even herself would believe that she has what it takes to capture the title, also we have not seen her that much this year. So unless her draw is a good one I don't think she'll be a huge favourite, but nonetheless she has a chance.
Serena Williams well never underestimate Serena I basically put her in contention in every slam because she is just the player that could do it, being the only active former Roland Garros winner in the draw she has definitely got the experience behind her. She also hasn't had a shabby year and definitely in the matches she has played in she has looked in good form, what I do worry about is that she is unpredictable, you could say she is out of contention but then she goes on to win the title but when people say she has a chance she seems to be just another good player. However her nemesis was Justine last year in Grand Slams so I think the possibility of her getting to the finals is a good one as long as she has a good draw.
Elena Dementieva, difficult to imagine that she is back and looking strong but she is and she has played some good tennis in recent weeks, though by far an outsider for the title she has been a Finalist here so should look out for her.
Anna Chakvetadze, out of the top 8 the only player I think has no chance of winning is her. Before last year which was probably her best year she didn't really amaze anyone in Roland Garros, this year she has also been a shadow of last year and I don't see her winning a GS maybe 2010 and even then it would be an outside chance. I think the possibility of her winning is low but the possibility of her reaching QF and beyond isn't off sight.
Venus Williams, what I've learnt is to never say Venus isn't in contention, though she is an outsider for the title Venus craves that energy of being the underdog, I personally think she loses herself a bit under tension of being called the favourite, now that the draw is wide open and she is deemed an outside favourite her chances are there to take the title.

Well now onto the draw for the first section I'll be looking out for Maria Kirilenko, Kateryna Bondarenko and Dinara Safina as well of course Maria Sharapova, don't get me wrong I just like them! Anyway I think it is safe to say Maria will be safe in the early stages. I think Safina should be fine reaching Sharapova, besides being on form she has had by far the best record in her half section of the draw in Roland Garros.
It's wierd to see Vera Zvonareva back into the top but she has done well. For some reason I always get the impression she is like 28 or so but she's only 23! Anyway enough of that Vera has had a good year but Roland Garros hasn't been good for her in recent years though she did reach the QF's way back in 03. I'm not particularly interested in anybody in this draw but I do want to see a bit more of Elena. Anyway Bammer got to R4 here last year but this year she looks off and I don't expect her to do anything similar. Kudryavtseva reached the 3r here last year being her first time playing in Roland Garros so I will look out for her. Basically nobody strikes out in this draw for me.
In Section 3 we have Kuznetsova who should land safely to the Quaters in my point of view due to an easy draw. Definitely going to cheer on Krajicek! Anyway Azarenka the following seed has never been good on this tournament and I don't see her changing that, she may reach the 4th round - as I don't see anyone else to be extremely difficult, Schiavone may try to jump in for the kill here. She has done well in Roland Garros and added with an easy draw she may be Svetlana's 4th Round opponent.
It's very sad to see that the top half is so weak compared to the bottom draw, For once the draw is bottom heavy! Anyway the second Quater looks to be one which works well for Sharapova and with this draw I think Sharapova has a strong chance to reach the final - I hope she does as if she doesn't it would be a shock if anyone else does. Anyway Yung-Jan Chan and Meng Yuan (being Chinese and Taiwanese) will be ones I will look to watch. Szavay hasn't done anything impressive this year and I truly believe she will drop out of the top 20 this year! However her draw is not invested with top players! Peer though not in a good season will be one to watch out for because her record here is good. Anabel Medina Garrigues's favourite Slam is this one so I won't cut her off of a chance as Chakvetadze is the top seed there. It will be interesting to see if Pironkova continues her streak but Chakvetadze has definitely got it easy here.
Venus will be playing in the 5th section and ME Salerni after a long hiatus in Slams. To be honest Venus's draw isn't too pressing and though I'd love to say Pennetta has a chance I think her chances are slim. Then we have Bartoli and Mauresmo who both I think will not be a problem.
I'm amazed why so many people seem to think Cornet has a chance, yes she has been doing well recently but in the past three Roland Garros she has played in she has only reach R2. I'll cheer for Dulko here. If Radwanska plays well then I think she'll be fine here but the real winner here is Jankovic, she has a draw which she can win easily, Cilbulkova may be a threat but she should be fine here seeing that she has a chance to win the title!
Section 7 sees Serena and Patty. I think Serena is quite safe here, Srebotnik has weakened this year as well as Razzano and to an extent Schnyder so I think Williams shouldn't have anything to worry about, I'll be looking to see Yan.
Finally Section 8 sees Nicole and Ana, I am so dissapointed that Nicole is losing out at this stage of the year where the rankings are wide open, if only she was in form like she was last year and the year before she would be a contender here. Peng and Bondarenko will also be ones for me to watch out for, though Nicole doesn't have an extremely difficult draw she has lost to some low ranking players recently, If she can get to the 4th Round I'll be happy.

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