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This is going to be an article about the No.1 spot on the ATP. Many say that Federer is only in a phase but after losing to Djokovic, Murray and Fish he hasn't actually won a tournament this year and each loss is worse than the last. Since last year I knew that Federer was in decline but I thought it would in 2009. We can see last year at the Masters Series he had a bad record generally with 4 times losing before the Quarters which is not like Federer. His current win loss is 8-3, which is appalling for him considering his 2005 was 81-4 and 2006 was 92-5. If he doesn't quickly improve I don't see his chances at Roland Garros though he will still be a big name in Wimbledon. I really don't think Federer is actually going to get back to his top form as the game is developing quick. He was never a childhood wonder so I think he has passed his sell by date. I do think next year he will lose his No.1, this year he may swap places with Nadal but next year will be when Nadal solidfies this. Djokovic will also be coming up and quickly Federer will get to third.
Nadal is not looking much better having a 12-4 record and not winning a single title yet. At all the Masters last year Nadal actually did better than Federer by winning three and only losing before the Quarters once and that was in one of his worst ones being Cincinnati. The thing is I think Nadal is not improving in actual fact I think he's hit his limit. He will take No.1 for some time maybe a year in total or so but trying to take over Federer has worn him down and except for the Clay courts he isn't fantastic at the other surfaces. In the end it is not going well for the top 2 and I don't think it is going to get any better. I think things will slightly improve for them when it gets to their best surface but after that I don't see tha holding their dominance. Both have funnily enough lost to Djokovic this year which shows how he is taking them down. He no longer thinks he is the underdog, he is right in this competition.
If we look at it this way Djokovic only rose to prominence about this time last year but in a year he is already in contention for top. This year would be difficult for him to continue what he did last year but it is possible as he is a better player than last year. If he can just get to the finals of Roland Garros and Wimbledon we will already know he is the best player currently without him actually winning any of the others. What I see is that currently he is close to Nadal in what he is achieving but he has more potential as he is more of an all court player like Federer. The thing is as long as he improves on some of his Masters then he will be on top of the game. He is currently at 8-2 which is great for him as that's 80% the highest he has had. You may say that is not much better than Federer and Nadal but it is when you have won a title unlike the other two. Actually looking at Djokovic's Masters 2005 looks like his demon as Masters he's player in 2005 he has not done well in!
Let me summarize this basically Federer is slumping (he was never a young prodigy but Nadal and Djokovic were) what we are now seeing is the eventual dominance of Nadal and Djokovic next year or in 2010 as come 2012 Federer would drop out of the top 10. The thing is Djokovic has much more talent than Nadal and Nadal has hit a peak! What will happen eventually is the Djokovic era, which would probably begin in 2010 and would last a few years looking at the competition currently.
Others who will grace the scenes later are:
Gasquet - when some of the golden oldies go (I don't actually mean the really old but mid and late 20's) he will probably reach a peak of third but that will probably be as far as he goes, he will take the place of people like Davydenko, Ferrer etc. (you know what I mean) This is because he isn't consistent enough and he isn't exactly 18.
Murray - He is improving, but not quick enough. He has the ability to take No.1 at some point but he hasn't been as explosive as Djokovic has, they came out about the same point but Djokovic has overshadowed him.
Berdych - is a good player but his potential is running out, I think he will at best reach top 5 but no further as he just isn't a good enough player.
Tsonga - is not at the moment in contention, he will be a late developer like Federer was but I don't see him reaching No.1 in the next 4 years. He will probably do a Nadal but by the time he has a chance he will be too old to take it.
Juan Monaco - An Interesting guy but he will not be as good as the others in the future probably taking a top 10 spot.
Gael Monfils - He is a guy that will do something in the future but not the near future meaning probably when he's 24 or so therefore that is too late and he will miss out on a top 5.
There are others but currently they aren't worth mentioning as they won't get to the top in the next two years.
few years time the top 5 will probably look like
Djokovic
Nadal
Murray
Gasquet
Berdych/Tsonga
But at the moment it is looking more promising than a dominance from Federer and Nadal!